Ukraine Wheat

World Agricultural Production

Ukraine Wheat: Conflict Causes Lower Harvested Area Ukraine wheat production for marketing year (MY) 2022/23 is estimated at 19.5 million metric tons, down 9 percent from last month, and down 41 percent from last year. USDA crop production estimates for Ukraine include estimated output from Crimea. Yield is estimated at 3.71 tons per hectare, down 1 percent from last month and 17 percent from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 5.3 million hectares (mha), down 10 percent from last month and 29 percent from last year. Winter wheat is typically planted from about early September to mid-November and accounts for about 97 percent of total Ukraine wheat production. Each winter, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine (SSSU) publishes planted area information for the winter crops. SSSU estimates do not World Agricultural Production include Crimea or conflict zones in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, but these data were published pre-invasion, so do include other areas currently under conflict. Winter wheat was planted on 6.54 mha, as compared to 6.71 mha in MY 2021/22. Wheat area in Crimea is, on average, about 0.3 mha. Harvest has just begun at the end of June and will continue until mid-August. Based on operational harvest information from the Ministry of Agriculture in Ukraine, the estimate for harvested area is 4.96 mha, which is about 1.5 mha lower than the SSSU number published pre-conflict. This area estimate does not include Crimea, which USDA includes. Therefore, total USDA harvested area including Crimea is 5.25 mha. (For more information, please contact Katie.McGaughey@usda.gov.) Canada Wheat: Production Up on Increased Area USDA forecasts Canada wheat production for marketing year 2022/23 at 34.0 million metric tons (mmt), up 1.0 mmt or 3 percent from last month, 57 percent over last year and 12 percent above the 5-year average. Harvested area is estimated at 10.0 million hectares, up 3 percent from last month, 8 percent from last year, and 5 percent above the 5-year average. Yield is forecast at 3.40 metric tons per hectare, unchanged from last month and up 45 percent over last year. Statistics Canada (StatCan) conducted its 2022 Field Crop Survey in June, where Canadian farmers reported nearly 9 percent more area planted to wheat than last year. Spring wheat planting is up more than 10 percent while durum wheat area rose by nearly 9 percent, year-to-year. This increased Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 2 July 2022 Global Market Analysis acreage for spring varieties more than offset a 13 percent decline in winter wheat planting in eastern Canada. Government and industry reports indicate variable crop conditions in Saskatchewan, Canada’s leading wheat-producing province, where dryness continues to plague crops in many areas of the western portion of the province. The opposite is true in the eastern half of Saskatchewan, and Manitoba, where excessive moisture has been the limiting factor for crop progress. More broadly, however, reporting from both provinces indicates slowly improving conditions and crop advancement as the season progresses. Conditions in Alberta have improved dramatically since the spring, and crops are progressing normally as rainfall throughout the month of June replenished soil moisture. Overall, expectations for average wheat yields remain for the season. (For more information, please contact Aaron.Mulhollen@usda.gov.) Russia Wheat: Higher Spring Wheat Area Russia wheat production for marketing year 2022/23 is estimated at 81.5 million metric tons (mmt), up 1 percent from last month and up 8 percent from last year. The estimate includes 59.5 mmt of winter wheat and 22.0 mmt of spring wheat. USDA crop production estimates for Russia exclude estimated output from Crimea. Total wheat yield is estimated at 2.93 tons per hectare, essentially unchanged from last month, and up 8 percent from last year. Total harvested area is estimated at 27.8 million hectares (mha), up 1 percent from last month and last year. Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 3 July 2022 Global Market Analysis The Russian Ministry of Agriculture reported that spring wheat planting is complete on 12.6 mha. Since USDA publishes in harvested area, abandonment (the difference between planted and harvested area) needs to be taken into consideration. Abandonment for spring wheat is about 3 percent on average. Spring wheat is mainly planted in the regions bordering Kazakhstan: the Volga, Urals, and Siberian Districts of Russia. Critical crop yield development occurs throughout July. Harvest of spring wheat will begin in late August. Area, yield, and production estimates for Russia winter wheat and spring wheat are available on PSD Online. Select “Downloadable Data Sets” and open the zipped file for “Russia Wheat; Winter/Spring Area & Production”